Besides losing a lot of social conservatives, and not really caring about them anyway, Mitt Romney has another problem that Ezra Klein lays out. (Via Memeorandum.) He calls it the Wonkblog election model.
The fundamentals right now predict a close race and, most likely, an Obama win — though it’s easy to come up with a scenario in which Greece wrecks the euro zone, the resulting financial crisis wrecks our recovery, and the fundamentals shift to predict an Obama loss.
The main problem for Mitt Romney is that the economy is apparently not so bad as Republicans seem to want people to believe.
Things aren’t that bad, and probably won’t be come November no matter what happens in Europe. The econ forecasting models make Obama a slight underdog. Sounds about right to me with a “more of the same” economy.
We’re talking here about political realities — not what you might personally think should happen — and political realities are what they are. The Republican Party’s best hope to defeat Barack Obama has come and gone with Rick Santorum. Being badly outspent, he was able to win eleven states, including two states that went for Obama last time, Iowa and Colorado — by arguing conservatism across the board. Mitt Romney’s plan is to abandon the #1 issue to Catholics right now — religious freedom which is under threat from the “gay rights” movement and from the contraception mandate which he pioneered in Massachusetts. He plans to talk about nothing but the economy when the economy is not in catastrophic condition.
The fat lady is getting ready to sing and Romney hasn’t even secured the nomination yet.