Screen Shot: Real Clear Politics Average, 2008 GOP Presidential Primary
Over at Real Clear Politics, we can see the trend in the polling since the beginning of the GOP presidential primary. Michele Bachmann enjoyed an initital surge which did not pan out at all. Rick Perry and Herman Cain both have had “flavor of the month” status. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have been on something of a roller coaster ride. Rick Santorum, on the other hand, has continued to climb steadily and is now surging strongly.
I told you…a million years ago, Santorum is the guy. I have little doubt that the vast majority of the naysayers in the conservative movement will eventually have their “aha” moment with Rick Santorum and realize, he is not at all the man they thought he was. Those of us in Team Santorum have had our “aha” moment and we’re not going anywhere. That’s why his line at RCP averages looks like it does.
Public Policy Polling now has polling showing something else that is unique about Rick Santorum in comparing the other candidates who have challenged the establishment candidate, Mitt Romney. Rick Santorum is the only one to have been able to show that the claim that Mitt Romney is the most electable is a false claim.
This is a new development in the flavor of the month game. Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests. Santorum’s the first insurgent to challenge Romney on that front as well
I’ve been active in politics for 20 years. Even though I was quite familiar with Rick Santorum and considered him to be a hero of the pro-life movement, when he announced he was launching an exploratory committee to consider running for president, I did not immediately jump on board with him because I didn’t think he was electable. Regular readers know that I am very passionately pro-life. Social issues (human dignity, religious freedom, traditional values, etc.) are what I am about. Having saidt that, even I thought there was no way that he would be able to win. That was until I heard him, back in May, answer a question about how to address the problem of children in poverty.
The question of “children in poverty” is a perfect example of the fact that social issues are often intimately connected with fiscal issues. Rick Santorum’s answer to this question is both fiscally and socially conservative. Mitt Romney can’t answer that question and leave anyone feeling like the question has been answered in full. Rick Santorum can answer the question as BOTH a fiscal conservative AND a social conservative, not EITHER/OR, and he can answer it in full. When I heard him answer the question, that is when I had my “aha” moment and knew that he cannot only beat Obama, he can convince America that conservatism is the BEST way to help children in poverty. He can explain why the way of the Left only keeps them dependent.
If we can’t agree that children in poverty need a chance in America to rise from their station and to have hope for a better tomorrow, then we have indeed lost our soul as a country. The fact is that conservatism — across the board — has the answer to that question that is pro-freedom and pro-dignity. I’m not posting the answer he gave because I want you to pay attention to him and listen for it. He has things to say about conservatism that will make your hearts soar with hope that America can not only get back on track, but be truly strong again.
That is why Rick Santorum is far more electable than Mitt Romney is. It’s why I had my “aha” moment with him and jumped on board for the long haul way back in May. Of course, there are many arguments for Rick Santorum’s electability, but I really believe that is the most important one. Ask Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Barack Obama what should be done about children in poverty and require them to give a detailed explanation about it. I think you will have your “aha” moment, too. You will realize that neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama really care enough to make the case in a manner that is both authentic and the way to address the issue in a positive manner. The candidate who can do that is the candidate who can win the nomination and the general election.
Thanks, Stacy McCain, for doing me that huge favor and going to the cornfields of Iowa to see my candidate.
Seems like a million years ago, doesn’t it? I’m thinking back to that August afternoon in a barn amid the cornfields near Roland, Iowa, when I showed up on a Saturday as a favor to Lisa Graas, to cover her favorite candidate, the guy nobody believed could win. Now take a look at the headlines today:
Poll: Rick Santorum takes
slight lead in GOP race
– CBS NewsSantorum Catches Up With Romney in New Poll
– New York Times59% of Catholics Disapprove
of Obama’s Job Performance
– Rasmussen ReportsThat last headline should serve to remind you of something I kept in mind back when nobody else was paying attention to Santorum: Blue-collar Catholics are a vital “swing” constituency, and a Republican who can appeal to those voters is always formidable, whether in a primary or a general election.
Nobody was paying attention in the blogosphere…except for me. I know I’m crazy, and I get on your nerves, and I won’t back off many times when I’m ranting, when I really should….but there’s something else you may not know about us folks with Bipolar Disorder. We’re often geniuses.
Does this mean Rick Santorum is absolutely going to win? Nope. Many are going to have their Jonah moment. They can do what needs to be done and get behind him when they realize what he is really about and that we all have work to do, or they can be swallowed by the “expediency” whale. I am hopeful that people will do the right thing, but they could just as easily run away from this challenge. We’ll see. I’m praying….but no, I am not at all surprised by these numbers.
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